I am back long the Ultra Real Estate ETF (URE). I tend not to trade stocks that I lost money in the past but if I would of held my original position, I would be making money, I was impatient.
I sold my FSLR call spread and called it a victory. I used some of the proceeds to buy calls in Solar Fun (SOLF). I brought 3 OCT 5 for $1.35 Solar Fun had a big day yesterday, will probably stay idle a few days, but I believe it is going higher. SOLF has seemed to find support at $5.90.
I sold my CME Group Call spread. Stock is now stuck going sideways, there are much better stocks to trade. Profit was about $35.
I Brought 1 MAR 19 call on Las Vegas Sands (LVS) for $2.95. This brings my total to 3 with a delta of 159. I believe this stock is for real now with rising relative strength and rising on balance volume. Stock trades above 50 day MA and 50 day MA is above 200 day MA.
I shorted 100 shares of Nanometrics Inc. (NANO) this stock had a parabolic move to the upside and now it looks ready to come crashing down. Stop is above today’s high.
One last trade, I sold my big 43 shares of Apple (AAPL) and brought 1 Oct 145 Call for $28.70. This trade is kind of risky, but I really believe in Apple, this stock is a true winner. Never bet against them, so I bet with them with a deep in the money call. I will probably sell a call option against it as soon as I can get a little pop, hopefully to the upside.
Happy Trading!!
I brought FSLR on Friday by buying Calls. I brought 2 the Sept 120 call for $4.95. Total of $990. These calls had a negative Theta around -30 for both at the time. I just knew FSLR was going to bounce off of the recent drop and I wanted to hold on a couple of days for the rebound. With the 3 day weekend and a negative theta of 30. I was going to cost me around $90 just to hold over the weekend until Tuesday morning. So my plan was to sell 2 upside calls at the close, which I did, to hedge the negative theta for the weekend. I was going to buy them back at the open on Tuesday, but then FSLR ripped. So I didn’t buy them back. I had sold 2 Sept 130 Calls for $1.85. This created a 120-130 call spread. The calls I brought went from $990 to @2,160; which is great. But the calls I sold for $1.85 or $370 total are now worth $1,310. Thats a lost of $940.
So basically, what I am getting at is, I was worried about negative theta that would of cost me $90. By hedging myself for the long weekend, the fear of losing $90 turned into losing $940, because I normally wouldn’t of had put on a call spread. I would of just held straight calls outright.
Now for the bright side. The total position is now worth $840. If FSLR stays above $130 at expiration, my total gain would be $1380. The most I can lose it $620 if it falls below $120 at expiration. I will probably adjust this position to lock in some of the gains. I just don’t know exactly what I am going to do yet. I am thinking of closing out the position and just buying 1 call, and pocketing the rest. This would be a free call since the call would be less then the total profit.
I also brought 2 Citigroup calls yesterday on weakness. I brought 2 Mar 4 Calls for $1.29. I now own 14 Mar Calls. 13 at the 4 strike and 1 at the 5 strike.
I won’t be watch the market much today as the battery is dead in my car. I will spend most of the morning trying to get a new one. I hope it isn’t the alternator.
Since the market didn’t tank after the unemployment number rose to 9.7%, I think we will be headed higher. Not necessarily today but in the weeks to come. The European markets are also trading higher after trading flat before the numbers were released. The true tell will be based on the close today. If we close higher, were headed higher. If we close lower, were headed lower. At least this is my opinion, and I am no professional.
I am not in the land of 1000 bull dances, but what a closing reversal. If the employment number comes out better than expected tomorrow, this market is going to rip.
This market is weird. So it seems like a tug of war between buyers and sellers and SP 1000 is the do not cross line.All of this activity is based upon positioning for the employment number tomorrow. I’m starting to think that it is going to be a non event. If it comes in weak, bulls will say, “it’s not a forward looking number”. If it comes in strong bears will come up with something else to worry about like the dollar, interest rates, deficit, same store sales numbers weak. I mean, you pick and they will say it. But I can tell you this. Whichever the way the market goes tomorrow will be the new short term trend.
I brought some puts on the SPY to hedge myself with and lightened up on my FAS position. I sold Agilent Tech (A) and now I am sure it will start to rip to the upside. I brought some Sept calls on Intrepid Potash for a quick pop hoping to see some follow thru from yesterday. So far I am not getting it. I want to sell it if it breaches today’s lows, but I just might hold on to it until tomorrow.
Oh yeah, my prediction. I predict that the market correction will be over tomorrow and we will start another strong move to the upside. But I am wrong more than half of the time and that is the reason I have lightened up on things.
What do you think the market will do?? I invite comments to all my post, so feel free to. It only takes a couple of seconds.
I’ve been saying all along buy on the dips, but yesterdays selling was so intense I was selling everything myself. We haven’t seen selling like this since last September. The NYSE Ticks were pegged below -1000 for a majority of the downdraft. I sold most stocks but failed to sell my biggest position which was the FAS. When this thing goes down it hurts, being that it is 3x leveraged ETF tracking financials and financial stocks lead the downturn. So you can imagine, I took a beating.
I feels the market turned down the way it did because all of that talk about September being bad for the markets. I feel that this is the sole reason. The market popped in the morning and everyone said, “well it’s Sept, Let me lighten up on positions”. Hey, I was one of them. I managed to sell almost all of my positions right at the top. It was like a crash, but I didn’t hear anyone say the C word. We was up about 60 and fell to 185 in a heartbeat. Thats about a 245 point drop in a flash. At least the market remained steady throughout the remainder of the day, for the most part.
The S&P chart did break the secondary trend line and may head down to the primary trend line which is 960. If we break that, we are in trouble. I still feel we should be buying. I did buy Textron (TXT), ON Semiconductor (ONNN), and Agilent Tech (A) yesterday.
Get your shopping list ready and buy this dip. A good gauge in to see which stocks will participate in the next rally is buying the ones that didn’t participate in the downturn. Those are the ones with great relative strength.
Well lets just wait and see what the market has in store for us today. Be patient and dip your toes. Watch that 960 level, it’s critical.
Well folks, this is what we are waiting for. The S&P’s seem to be hovering slightly below the 38.2 retracement which is 1017 and sitting on the secondary trend line in this uptrend. I don’t think that it will remain here. I am expecting a close above this level. So I am a buyer. If it stays below I will buy more. Right now as I type this the S&P futures are in a volatility squeeze, meaning the market will break one way or the other (up or down). It will not stay here. Which ever way it breaks, we will probably see another day or two of follow thru in that direction. Listen, if the market dips or not, the market will eventually head higher from these levels. That means anytime you can get stocks cheaper than the day before, you should do so. Just buy a little here a little there. Look at the longer term. You can’t catch the bottom. Pull up monthly charts. You’ll notice there the market hasn’t skipped a beat. Uptrend still intact.
Today I brought calls in:
Allegheny Technologies Inc (ATI)
Agilent Technologies Inc (A)
Micron Technology (MU)
CME Group (CME) this one is breaking out
Game Stop (GME)
shares of JDS Uniphase Corp (JDSU)
I am not sure if I caught the temporary bottom, but I did buy the shares lower.
I can never seem to post on Friday’s. I guess it is because of the weekend and even though I do not do much, I have plenty to do. Does that make sense? Well anyway, on Thursday I brought into the AIG hype and brought a Jan 55 Call for $9.90. Well by Friday morning that thing had ripped about $300 to the upside. Instead of selling it for a cool profit. I locked in most of that gain by selling a call against it. I sold the Jan 65 call for $9.00. By doing so, the most I can lose is $90 on the trade and the most I can gain is $910. I gain the max if AIG closes above $65 by Jan expiration. My break even for the trade is $55.86. Max lose occurs at any close below $55. Personally, I am feeling pretty cool about this trade. My $990 lotto ticket now only cost $90 bucks. I can sleep with that.
Tags: aig
Today I brought into the hype of AIG and brought a call option, why not. I brought the Jan 55 for $990. It effectively becomes an expensive lotto ticket. The most I can lose is $990 and the upside is unlimited. My Citigroup call options treated me well today and so far I am up 50% on them. My goal is to hold on to them until Jan when they expire. With AIG I am going to have to play it by ear. When my money starts to get scared, I’ll be out. That might happen today, but I will try to hold as long as I can stand it. I hated to buy it being up 30% percent or so, but with stocks like these, sometimes you don’t get a chance.
Yesterday, I got stopped out on TEVA, and FSLR, so my positions are few. They are AAPL, AIG, C, and FAS. I will probably stay light until the market gives some sort of direction of where it wants to go. It appears to me that the market will trade sideways until next Fridays employment report. Which ever way the market goes for that day will probably be the general direction for the rest of the month of September. If it goes down due the the employment report and September being the bearish month that it usually is, we could be in for a hell of a ride.
